An onchain indicator suggests that most bitcoin investors are currently under pressure, with 63% of all wealth invested in the largest cryptocurrency having a cost basis above $88,000, according to data from Checkonchain.
That means the majority of capital entered the market at a higher price than BTC trades at today. Invested wealth refers to the total value of capital deployed in bitcoin when the coins last moved on chain. That’s different from the cost basis, which is the average price at which that bitcoin was acquired.
This insight comes from the a measure called the UTXO Realized Price Distribution (URPD). URPD illustrates the price levels at which the existing supply of bitcoin last moved on chain. Each bar represents the amount of bitcoin whose most recent transaction occurred within a specific price range.
The bitcoin price has been constrained between $80,000 and $90,000 since November. URPD highlights how much capital is currently underwater. Tens of billions of dollars sit between $85,000 and $90,000. A price move below $85,000 could intensify selling pressure as investors attempt to limit losses. Long-term holders are already selling at the fastest pace in six months.
Adding to the risk, there is relatively little supply between $70,000 and $80,000. If the $80,000 level fails, last tested in November, a rapid move toward $70,000 becomes more likely.
Looking ahead to February, bitcoin is on track to finish January little changed, without the typical relief rally after seeing three consecutive months of declines. Historically, February has been a strong month, averaging gains of around 13%, according to Coinglass data. Whether history repeats may depend on how the market absorbs the current overhang of underwater supply.
