Kalshi’s resolution of prediction markets tied to the death of Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei has sparked controversy.
Kalshi, a CFTC-regulated prediction market platform, is facing backlash over its handling of markets linked to the death of Iran’s Supreme Leader, Ali Khamenei.
Traders expressed dissatisfaction with Kalshi’s decision not to resolve a market titled “Ali Khamenei out as Supreme Leader?” to “yes” after his death was announced.
Kalshi CEO Tarek Mansour explained the company’s no-death-market policy, stating, “We don’t list markets directly tied to death. When there are markets where potential outcomes involve death, we design the rules to prevent people from profiting from death.” The platform reimbursed fees and settled trades based on the odds when the market closed at 39.5%, rather than a full resolution to “yes,” which would have resulted in far higher payouts.
Kalshi’s market rules specified that if a leader leaves solely due to death, the market would resolve based on the last traded price prior to the death. Despite this, some users remained frustrated, urging others to consider alternative platforms like Polymarket, which resolved a similar market to “yes.”
However, a similar dispute occurred when Polymarket ruled a U.S. capture of Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro didn’t qualify as an “invasion,” upsetting traders at the time.
This article was generated with the assistance of AI workflows.