Wall Street bank Citigroup is dialing back expectations for Coinbase (COIN) amid a risk-off mood gripping markets.
In a Friday note to clients, the bank’s analysts lowered their price target on the crypto exchange to $400 from $505, citing weaker trading volumes, softer institutional activity and ongoing uncertainty around the timing of U.S. crypto legislation.
The new $400 price target still represents more than a doubling in price from COIN’s close last night of $146. The same analyst team lifted its price target on COIN to $505 in July 2025 as the stock was hitting a record high near $450.
Shares are up 6% in pre-market action on Friday as crypto markets recover a bit from Thursday’s crash that saw bitcoin plunge all the way to $60,000.
Despite the near-term reset, the firm reiterated its buy/high risk rating, calling Coinbase the category leader and a prime beneficiary of eventual crypto reform. Progress on CLARITY, Citi said, remains the key catalyst for reviving the stock’s momentum.
The bank now expects Senate negotiations over the market structure bill to stretch beyond 2026, even as groundwork continues.
Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong said his firm had pulled support for a sweeping digital assets bill after finding provisions that could have harmed consumers and stifled competition.
The bill has repeatedly lost steam as crypto and banking lobbyists clash over stablecoin yield, while lawmakers from both parties remain deadlocked on several other provisions.
Marking current crypto prices to market, analysts led by Peter Christiansen cut their near-term forecasts, trimming Coinbase fourth-quarter 2025 net revenue by roughly 10% to $1.69 billion, about 4% below consensus.
After factoring in a $2.3 billion mark-to-market decline on crypto holdings and Coinbase’s equity stake in Circle (CRCL), the analysts now forecast a fourth-quarter GAAP EPS loss of $2.64.
Coinbase will release fourth quarter and full year 2025 financial results after the close on February 12.
Read more: Citi says CLARITY Act momentum builds, but DeFi fight could stall crypto bill
