Bitcoin fell on Tuesday after chalking out a six-day winning streak, the longest since March. The gains, in any case, looked fragile when viewed through the lens of several indicators.
The most widely followed is the Coinbase Premium, which tracks the difference between bitcoin’s price on U.S.-based exchange Coinbase (COIN) and Binance. It has now been negative for fifty straight days, according to data source Coinglass.
That means for close to two months, BTC has been cheaper on Coinbase than Binance, which doesn’t operate in the U.S. The discrepancy is an indicator of relatively weak demand in the world’s largest economy, a message underscored by the eight straight weeks of net outflows from U.S. spot exchange-traded funds. Historically, bull runs have featured consistently positive Coinbase Premiums.
Another concerning trend is seen in Japan, where bond yields just can’t stop rising. The 10-year rose to a 30-year high early today, lifting borrowing costs in the U.S., U.K. and Germany. A continued upswing, particularly in Treasury yields, could create a headwind for BTC.
While seasonality supports continued recovery, it’s the ETF flows that matter the most, according to analysts.