The U.S. job market weakened appreciably in February, possibly putting back in play the chance of Federal Reserve rate cuts in the first half of 2026.
The country lost 92,000 jobs last month, according to Friday’s report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Economists had forecast an addition of 59,000 new jobs, compared with January’s gain of 126,000.
The unemployment rate rose to 4.4% versus economist expectations of 4.3%, and January’s reading of 4.3%.
Under pressure overnight ahead of the report and trading down to $70,000 as oil soared higher and equity markets dipped, bitcoin remained right around that mark in the minutes following the data.
U.S. stock index futures continue lower, with the Nasdaq down 1% and S&P 500 off 0.8%. The 10-year Treasury yield has fallen four basis points to 4.11%. Precious metals reversed an early decline, with gold now higher by 1% and silver by 2%. WTI crude oil is up 6.2% to $86 per barrel.
Ahead of this morning’s report, markets were pricing in a 95% probability that the Federal Reserve would hold rates steady at the March 18 meeting and an 85% chance of no rate cut in April.
Meanwhile, rising oil prices linked to tensions in the Middle East could add upward pressure to inflation expectations. If sustained, higher energy prices may feed into broader inflation, particularly through energy and food costs. Combined with signs that the U.S. economy may be re-accelerating, this could prompt markets to reassess the path of monetary policy.