Bitcoin is exhibiting textbook bottom formation characteristics across multiple indicators, trading at levels that historically precede significant recoveries, according to onchain analyst James Check. Time — not price — is, however, likely to be the bigger test for bitcoin bulls.
“Every mean reversion model, from technical to onchain, is trading within bottom formation levels, typically seen after the price capitulation event (which December 2018 and June 2022 were examples of),” wrote Check on Tuesday morning as bitcoin plunged through $63,000, seemingly on its way to testing the Feb. 5 panic low of $60,000.
“Either Bitcoin is dead, will no longer mean revert, and all your models are broken,” Check continued. “Or you should be ignoring the bears … and quietly [be] dollar cost averaging [and] stacking sats from here on.”
Check — who correctly urged caution in 2025 about investing in any of BTC treasury companies formed to try and replicate the success of Michael Saylor’s Strategy — acknowledged today that it’s possible or even likely that the price of bitcoin could fall even further from here. Time, though, will be the more important factor. He reminded of the brutal 2022 bear market. Folks remember the price low around $15,600 in December of that year, but bitcoin essentially bottomed six months earlier at about $17,600. The rest was just waiting, and then a final liquidity flush (surrounding the FTX collapse).
“This is literally what a de-risked setup looks like for bitcoin,” concluded Check. “If you’re not actively accumulating bitcoin at this stage, then when?”