There is a popular indicator that crypto pundits watch closely for cues on whether U.S.-based investors, especially institutions, are actually buying bitcoin or sitting on sidelines watching the market.
It is called the Coinbase premium index and as of now it is flashing the most sustained bullish signal since bitcoin traded at record highs above $126,000 in October.
This index has been positive for 14 consecutive days, from April 9 through today, April 22, according to data source Coinglass. That is the longest unbroken stretch of positive readings since October.
Here is why it matters
The Nasdaq-listed Coinbase is the go-to-exchange for U.S. institutions – corporate treasuries, hedge funds and regulated alternative investment vehicles such as the ETFs. So, when bitcoin’s price trades at a premium on Coinbase relative to prices on offshore giant Binance, it means U.S. buyers are being aggressive in purchasing BTC. Historically, strong buying from U.S. investors has been a feature of bull runs.
The opposite, a negative premium or discount, signals that U.S. demand is lagging while offshore markets do the heavy lifting. For context, the premium was mostly negative from mid December to late February. During that time, BTC fell from roughly $100,000 to nearly $60,000.
The latest stretch of positive readings is all the more important as it shows sustained demand through geopolitical noise, DeFi crisis.
It’s no surprise that bitcoin is rallying. The cryptocurrency topped $78,000 on Wednesday, taking the month-to-date gain to 14%.