Bitcoin is breaking out of the Iran-headline chop.
The cryptocurrency topped $78,000 on Wednesday morning, up 2.2% over 24 hours and 4.3% on the week, after President Donald Trump said he would extend the Iran ceasefire indefinitely and Strategy disclosed the purchase of 34,164 BTC for $2.54 billion.
Ether rose 2.1% to $2,366, BNB climbed 1.3% to $640, and Solana gained 1.8% to $87. The only red in the top 10 was a trickle of 0.1% declines in stablecoins and Tron.
The S&P 500 futures rose 0.5% and Nasdaq 100 futures gained 0.6% after Trump’s extension, though the underlying benchmarks closed lower Tuesday as talks briefly wobbled. Brent crude hovered near $98 a barrel. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index slipped 0.7% as investors weighed how long the Middle East conflict runs.
Trump blamed negotiation collapses on what he called a “seriously fractured” leadership structure in Tehran, and said the U.S. would hold off on fresh attacks while keeping its Strait of Hormuz blockade in place.
Strategy’s buy is the largest bitcoin purchase by the company since November 2024. The 34,164 BTC acquisition at an average $74,395 per coin brings the firm’s holdings to 815,061 BTC, bought for $61.6 billion at an average cost basis of $75,527. With bitcoin at $77,541, the position is now modestly in profit for the first time in months.
Spot flows back the move. Global crypto funds pulled in $1.4 billion last week according to CoinShares, the strongest week of inflows since mid-January. Bitcoin took $1.12 billion, Ethereum $328 million, Chainlink $5 million, and Sui $2 million. XRP saw $56 million in outflows and Solana $2 million, despite both trading higher on price.
Two structural signals point the same direction. Bitcoin is now holding above the realized price of short-term holders at around $69,400 per analyst Darkfost, the level at which recent buyers are sitting on gains rather than losses, which historically reduces the odds of a cascade liquidation if sentiment reverses.
Separately, a Nomura survey found 65% of Japanese institutional investors now hold bitcoin for portfolio diversification, with 31% viewing the market outlook positively and most planning 2% to 5% allocations over the next three years.
Whether bitcoin can hold $77,000 through the European session depends on how markets price the ceasefire extension against continued Strait of Hormuz disruption.
A clean break above $80,000 would confirm the 46-day funding rate compression is flipping into a short squeeze. A reversal below $75,000 would mean the ceasefire extension is already priced in and the rally needs a fresh catalyst.