Bitcoin (BTC) slipped from near three-month highs on Thursday as attention turned to the weekly close.
Key points:
- Bitcoin retraces after its latest trip to its highest levels in several months.
- The upcoming weekly candle close is of particular interest as price eyes its bull market support band.
- A macro lull comes ahead of a deluge of US inflation data next week.
Bitcoin bull market support band returns after six months
Data from TradingView showed BTC/USD dropping to $77,200 prior to the Wall Street open.
The pair hit $79,500 the day prior, marking its highest levels since the last day of January as the $80,000 mark remained narrowly out of reach.
BTC/USD one-hour chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView
“$BTC just keeps taking out the highs, taking out short stops without following through,” trader Jelle commented on the latest price action in a post on X.
“Been a while since we saw PA like that; usually means liquidity is being generated for a larger position. The question is, when will they step on the gas?”
BTC/USD four-hour chart. Source: Jelle/X
As Cointelegraph reported, multiple resistance levels remain in play in the current spot price zone, with the 21-week exponential moving average (EMA) proving hard to flip to support. Bitcoin last traded above that trend line in October 2025.
With that, another chart feature finally making a comeback after a six-month absence is Bitcoin’s bull market support band.
Formed by the 21-week EMA and the 20-week simple moving average (SMA), the support band was lost as support soon after Bitcoin’s latest all-time highs.
“$BTC Attempting to break back above the bull market support band,” trader Daan Crypto Trades confirmed.
“Eyes on the weekly close this weekend, as it will be an important one. Bitcoin has not traded above its bull market support band since October 2025.”
BTC/USD one-week chart. Source: Daan Crypto Trades/X
Fed policy, oil seen as next crypto catalysts
Macro markets provided little volatility on the day, with few cues from the US-Iran war.
Related: Bitcoin Bull Score hits six-month high as 2022 bear-market fears linger
The coming week was due to see key US macroeconomic data prints released, along with the latest interest-rate announcement from the Federal Reserve.
As Cointelegraph previously noted, markets saw little chance of Fed easing policy until the end of 2027 as geopolitical uncertainty raised the odds of inflation making a comeback.
The latest data from CME Group’s FedWatch Tool put the chances of the Fed changing rates at next week’s meeting at practically zero.
“The cleanest tells from here are still oil and policy. Oil below $100 would support the relief case, while clearer Fed signalling would help compress the policy premium,” trading company QCP Capital wrote in its latest “Market Color” analysis on Wednesday.
“Until then, the broader message remains the same: risk has stepped back from the brink, but the underlying macro and geopolitical overhang has not been cleared.”
Fed target rate probabilities (screenshot). Source: CME Group