The seasonal pattern normally runs the other way. Across bitcoin’s full record, the fourth quarter has been its strongest by a wide margin, averaging a 77% gain with a median near 48%, the stretch that has repeatedly salvaged mediocre years.
The third quarter is the opposite, the weakest quarter on average and often flat. The calendar, in other words, would normally argue for a quiet third quarter and a strong fourth-quarter finish. In 2018 and 2022, that seasonal strength failed. The bear market overrode the calendar, and the fourth quarter, usually the best, became one of the worst.
A sample of two may tell little on its own and both of those years turned on specific collapses that have no exact equivalent today. The comparison does not mean 2026 must follow 2018 or 2022, but it does mean the only other times bitcoin started a year this weakly, the weakness was a symptom of something structural rather than a passing dip.
Whether 2026 belongs in that category depends on what is driving the selling, and the drivers look more like a grind than a panic.
U.S. spot bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) have seen record outflows over the past month, the number of active users onchain has stayed near the low end of its range, and capital has rotated steadily into AI stocks, which just posted their best quarter in years while crypto fell.
