For bitcoin supporters, the reality that BTC is steadier than the Kospi is a notable victory. Still, the largest cryptocurrency remains twice as volatile and risky as the S&P 500 index, whose 30-day volatility index (VIX) sits below 20%. Perhaps the true milestone for bitcoin bulls will be the day when the VIX becomes more expensive than the BVIV.
In the meantime, bitcoin’s price remains under pressure, trading below its widely followed 50-day moving average, though there is a glimmer of optimism. According to analytics firm Nansen, the wallets that typically move first and in the largest size during geopolitical flare-ups have not meaningfully shifted into stablecoins.
“This is consistent with prior Middle East flare-ups: Short-term leveraged longs get flushed, and then accumulation resumes,” Nicolai Sondergaard, a research analyst at Nansen, said in an email.
Other market observers are urging a focus on the forthcoming hearings in Washington D.C.
“The Clarity Act faces what could be its final test today, the industry insisting its gets done while the bill snags on Trump conflict of interest provisions and fresh Senate hurdles before the August recess. This is the regulatory clarity the institutional bid has been waiting for,” analysts at Marex said.