Bitcoin’s long-term rally is “broken” and will remain so until the price climbs above $85,000, said Jean-David Péquignot, chief commercial officer of derivatives exchange Deribit.
The largest cryptocurrency has settled into the $60,000 to $70,000 range in the past week, some 45% below the record high it hit in October. It’s on track to fall for a fourth straight week, and dropped below $85,000 at the end of January.
“Until the market reclaims $85k, the longer-term chart remains broken, and the path of least resistance technically remains lower,” Péquignot said in an interview during the Consensus Hong Kong conference.
Rising above $85,000 would confirm that buyers have established control, having soaked up all the supply that wrecked the long-term outlook. The bitcoin price was recently near $66,600, well below Péquignot’s make-or-break level, and deep in bear territory with room for more pain.
Speaking of the pain, $60,000 is the next big support, a price that nearly came into play early this month as bitcoin wilted alongside software stocks. According to Péquignot, it is a major psychological level, where large buy walls, or multiple purchase orders, have historically resided.
“If $60k fails to hold on a closing basis, the 200-week MA is the next logical, and possibly final stop for this correction,” he said.
The 200-week simple moving average (SMA) is widely regarded as the holy grail for bottom fishers, or traders hunting bargains at bear-market lows to time their bullish bets. Since 2015, multiple bitcoin bear markets have hit lows near this average, which is why traders now track it closely. The average is currently located at around $58,000.
“Traders would be looking at the $58k–$60k range as the ultimate support,” Péquignot said.