Bitcoin’s price crash has left investors in the token’s spot exchange-traded funds (ETF) holding losses of 15% on average, setting the stage for potential panic selling if the crypto market doesn’t stabilize.
Since their U.S. debut two years ago, the investors have paid an average of roughly $90,200 per BTC, according to estimates by Bianco Research and 10x Research. With the largest cryptocurrency now trading around $76,800, that leaves them with a paper loss of about $13,400 per BTC.
Being underwater could trigger ETF redemptions, particularly by short-term traders and speculators who bought in hopes of continued gains and quick profits. These potential redemptions could add to bearish pressures in the market.
Demand for ETFs has cratered since the Oct. 8 crash, which social media is widely blaming on Binance, the leading cryptocurrency exchange by volume and open interest.
January already marked a third straight month of net outflows, the first three-month run since their inception. The 11 spot bitcoin ETFs have registered a net outflow of $6.18 billion in the period, according to data source SoSoValue.
A deepening of the bear market could potentially spur a full-scale capitulation: Long-term holders give up, liquidate, and volumes explode. This dynamic often marks peak bear phases.
That said, analysts have previously told CoinDesk that institutional capital flowing into ETFs is meant for the long haul, and is “sticky”, meaning a full-blown capitulation is unlikely.