The Federal Reserve (Fed) will announce its rate decision at 2 p.m. ET today, followed by Chair Kevin Warsh’s press conference at 2:30 p.m. ET.
Traders typically assign greater weight to FOMC meetings that come with updated economic projections and a “dot plot” of interest-rate forecasts. Today’s gathering lacks both. Yet the outcome still carries outsized importance for three reasons.
Unusual uncertainty over the outcome: Markets are still assigning roughly a 35% probability of a rate increase, CME fed funds futures show. That level of indecision is rare so close to a decision. By now, traders have usually converged on a clear expectation of a hold, hike or cut. Citadel, one of the largest hedge funds in the world, is predicting an increase. The firm argues a move would end forward guidance as a policy choice, an outcome Chair Warsh has long favored.
Bond yields are already rising: Both the 10-year and two-year Treasury yields have broken above key trendlines that defined the shallow pullback in place since 2023 (check the Daily Signal). With the breakout complete, the path of least resistance is now clearly established to the upside.