Some observers remain skeptical of the sustainability of this inflation-led bounce, arguing that the collapse in oil prices mainly drove the slower growth in the cost of living in June and that the recent bounce in oil makes that data obsolete.
“The 3.5% [CPI] number was driven by a 10% drop in gasoline through June, and that move had already reversed before the report was published, with Brent at a one-month high as the Hormuz situation escalates,” Ryan Lee, chief analyst at crypto exchange Bitget, said in an email.
“Markets are rallying on a June photograph, while July develops differently, and the July print will be the first to carry the war premium,” Lee added.
Jasper De Maere, OTC trader at lading market maker Wintermute, also called for caution, while acknowledging inflation-led bounce and profit-taking near $65,000.
“While the inflation data is genuinely constructive and while positive headlines are very refreshing, it’s worth noting the backdrop hasn’t cleared with U.S. strikes on Iran are into a fourth consecutive day, and the Fear & Greed Index only moved from 22 to 25, still Extreme Fear. One soft CPI print against an active military escalation is not the same as a durable regime shift in risk appetite,” he said in an email.