The debasement trade, where investors move money out of fiat currencies like the dollar and into “hard assets” with limited supply, such as bitcoin and gold, could be back in vogue if Thursday’s U.S. nonfarm payrolls data backs up Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s latest take on inflation.
On Wednesday, Warsh said inflation risks have come down. That comment sparked a quick reassessment of Fed interest-rate increase prospects and triggered a bounce in both the largest cryptocurrency and the precious metal. Bitcoin has already pushed above $61,000, while gold has stabilized above $4,050 after dipping to $3,942 earlier this week.
These budding recovery rallies could really accelerate if the jobs data due at 8:30 a.m. ET shows clear labor-market weakness. Economists expect a 110,000 increase in jobs for June, down from 172,000 in May, with the unemployment rate holding steady at 4.3%. Average hourly earnings are forecast to edge up to 3.5% from 3.4%.