The rapid consolidation of the prediction market technology stack is raising the odds of a new wave of mergers and acquisitions across sports betting and financial markets, according to Wall Street broker Bernstein.
Over the past eight months, every major consumer-facing prediction platform has moved to own both customer distribution and exchange infrastructure, the report said.
“Kalshi and Polymarket own the stack but trail on distribution, which leaves each as plausibly a target as an acquirer,” analysts led by Ian Moore said in the Monday report.
The analysts noted that DraftKings acquired Railbird to launch its DKeX exchange, Robinhood partnered with Susquehanna to build Rothera, Coinbase acquired The Clearing Company shortly after launching event contracts, and Flutter established a dual-FCM structure to preserve access to multiple exchanges.
The trend reflects Bernstein’s view that prediction markets are converging with sports betting and consumer finance into a single competitive landscape, opening the door to combinations that previously seemed unlikely, including sportsbooks buying exchanges, exchanges buying sportsbooks, and consolidation among sportsbook operators themselves.