Bitcoin has spent five straight months trading below what it costs to produce, squeezing miners and forcing some to sell, JPMorgan said in a note. The bank pegs the cost to mine one bitcoin at about $78,000, well above the roughly $62,500 the asset fetches now.
The strain is showing and about 20% of miners are now unprofitable, the bank said citing CoinShares data, and publicly traded miners sold more than 32,000 bitcoin in the first quarter to cover operating costs, more than they offloaded in all of 2025.
The network is adjusting on its own. When the price drops below cost, higher-cost miners power down, the hashrate, or total computing power securing the network, falls, and mining difficulty, the automatic setting for how hard it is to mine, resets lower.
That played out in early June, when difficulty dropped 10%, the second decline of that size this year.
Miners are also reacting faster than before. JPMorgan says the sensitivity of difficulty to price has climbed, with more operators sitting near breakeven and flipping machines on or off as prices move. The bank expects larger and more frequent adjustments for as long as bitcoin stays below its production cost.
The outlook is cautious, but JPMorgan flags one upside. The weak sentiment around the sector could itself prove a bullish contrarian signal, echoing the run of accumulation readings, from whale buying to falling exchange reserves, pointing the same way this month.