Bitcoin has a unique pattern, and it has held across every major bullish cycle since the cryptocurrency began trading near zero 16 years ago. This pattern suggests that prices could crash to at least $48,000.
The pattern works like this. Draw Fibonacci retracements from near zero – BTC began trading at $0.003 in February 2010 – to bull market peaks reached in June 2011, November 2013, December 2017, and November 2021.
The bear markets that followed these peaks saw prices crash well below the 61.8% retracement of the entire move from near zero to the bull peaks. This has happened every time, as seen in the charts below.
Four peaks, four subsequent bear markets and four breaks below the 61.8% level. No exceptions.
Now comes the current cycle. Bitcoin peaked above $126,000 earlier this year. The 61.8% retracement from near zero in early 2010 to that peak sits at $48,215. Bitcoin is trading around $64,000 today, still well above that level.
The pattern hasn’t triggered. But if it does, a crash to at least $48,215 is where the charts point.