Bitcoin has carved out a relief bounce after plunging below $60,000 on Friday, but a bounce and a bullish revival are two very different things. The latter hinges on a couple of key price levels, according to analysts.
“The market has become oversold enough for sharp relief rallies, especially if inflation data softens and ETF outflows slow,” analysts at HEX Trust said in an email. “But the difference between a relief rally and a regime shift is acceptance … BTC needs [to retake] $79k-$80k.”
In other words, anything below $80,000 would be seen as a corrective bounce within the broader bear market that began last year. Only a move beyond that would signal the beginning of a new advance.
Their stance may be overly cautious, according to some observers.
“Technically, a recovery up to $68K could be viewed as a rebound from the downward momentum seen between 11 May and 5 June,” said Alex Kuptsikevich, the chief analyst at FxPro, hinting at a lower price level to beat for the bulls.
A rally even to these levels hinges on ETF flows and macro factors. The 11 spot bitcoin ETFs listed in the U.S. have processed redemptions over $5 billion in the past four weeks. On Monday, investors yanked another $91 million, according to data source SoSoValue.
These outflows need to meaningfully reverse for the bitcoin price to gain upward momentum. In addition, Wednesday’s U.S. inflation data may have to come in softer than expected, easing concerns the Fed will raise interest rates. The data is expected to show the cost of living topped 4% in May, well above the Fed’s 2% goal.
“The constructive path is conditional: inflation softens, Treasury yields stabilize, AI equities stop de-risking, BTC/ETH ETF outflows slow, and the market reclaims the key technical levels. Until then, the conclusion is deliberately simple: below the reclaim, there is no regime shift,” Hex Trust said. Stay alert!
Read more: For analysis of today’s activity in altcoins and derivatives, see Crypto Markets Today . For a comprehensive list of events this week, see CoinDesk’s “Crypto Week Ahead.”
What’s trending
Today’s signal
The chart shows bitcoin’s hourly price swings in candlestick format along with the MACD histogram in the lower pane, which shows trend changes and strength.
Prices are currently trading close to a trendline, which represents the mini-bounce from Friday’s low. A break of this trendline would mark the end of the bounce and open the path for a potential test of recent lows.
The negative MACD histogram suggests bearish momentum is strong, meaning the trendline support may not last long.
