Bitcoin is stabilizing near $73,500, about 10% below its monthly high of $81,000. Data suggests the stall reflects a shortage of new buyers rather than a plethora of sellers.
Risk assets broadly advanced after reports that U.S.-Iran negotiations could reopen the Strait of Hormuz, a vital oil passageway, lifted sentiment.
“The expectations of a de-escalation in geopolitical tension and the normalization of the Strait of Hormuz are reducing pressure on oil prices,” analysts at Spanish lender Bankinter wrote in a market note.
Against that supportive backdrop, bitcoin’s weakness looks crypto-specific. Long-term holder supply has reached a record 15.8 million BTC, according to CryptoQuant, normally a bullish signal because it reflects coins held rather than traded. The firm argued the record may be hollow, reflecting slowing market turnover rather than conviction.
Short-term holder supply has fallen about 2.2 million BTC since December. That includes roughly 900,000 BTC of Coinbase reserves that crossed the 155-day long-term-holder threshold by sitting still. The record is partly an artifact of inactivity, not fresh buying.
Demand from spot bitcoin ETFs, a key driver of the past two years’ rally, has cooled. Glassnode said inflows and spot demand remain too weak to sustain a move above cost-basis levels near $78,000. Net outflows from the ETFs reached a record nine-day streak on Thursday.
Glassnode’s realized profit/loss ratio sits at 1.56, below levels typical of stronger bull markets. On Polymarket, traders are assigning a strong probability bitcoin closes the month between $72,000 and $76,000. Stay alert!
Read more: For analysis of today’s activity in altcoins and derivatives, see Crypto Markets Today . For a comprehensive list of events this week, see CoinDesk’s “Crypto Week Ahead.”
What’s trending
Today’s signal
The ratio of altcoins (excluding the top 10) to bitcoin is currently just above its 50-week exponential moving average, a sign of strength relative to largest cryptocurrency.
If the ratio ends the week above that level, the next resistance is a 20% increase relative to bitcoin, which would indicate sustained momentum across the broader altcoin universe.
