Bitcoin (BTC) may be flashing a “sell in May and go away” warning, with the price down roughly 10% after rejecting resistance near $83,000 and now on track for a negative monthly close.
BTC/USD daily price chart. Source: TradingView
Key takeaways:
- BTC’s average returns a month after a red May are -10%
- Patient Bitcoin holders still generated positive returns over the longer term.
Bitcoin’s red May typically leads to weak summer returns
“Sell in May and go away” is a popular Wall Street saying based on the idea that stocks tend to perform better during the colder months than during the summer stretch.
For instance, the US benchmark index, S&P 500, averaged -0.24% one month and -2.25% three months after red Mays since 1990, before recovering to +1.22% after six months and +7.44% after 12 months.
Bitcoin’s own May history shows a similar short-term warning. BTC posted losses in May in 2013, 2015, 2018, 2021, 2022, and 2023. Its average returns one month later were -10.1%.
Bitcoin monthly returns. Source: CoinGlass
The three-month average return was also negative at around -3.3%. Therefore, BTC typically does not go through a significant recovery in the summer after dropping in May. That supports the idea that a red May can act as a short-term capitulation signal.
But, like US stocks, the longer-term picture is less bearish.
Six months after a negative May, BTC’s average return jumps to about +139%, largely because of 2013’s massive late-year rally. Excluding that outlier, the six-month average falls sharply to roughly +12.9%.
Based on Bitcoin’s current price near $75,850, its historical post-red-May averages imply a possible drop toward $68,200 by June and $73,350 by August.
The six-month average points to nearly $181,300 by November, though that figure is heavily distorted by 2013. Excluding that outlier, the six-month target falls to a more realistic $85,600.
Based on these historical signals alone, long-term Bitcoin investors have little reason to “sell in May and go away.”
The data points more to short-term weakness than a lasting breakdown in BTC’s broader upside trend.
Bear-market red Mays were more dangerous for Bitcoin
If Bitcoin closes the month below $76,000, the red May candle will be inside a bear-market structure.
In 2018 and 2022, May losses did not mark a quick bottom. Both years were already showing bear cycle signals, with BTC trading below major support and forming lower highs and lower lows.
After those red May closes, Bitcoin fell an average 26% one month later, 21.6% three months later, and roughly 46% six months later.
BTC/USD monthly chart. Source: TradingView
In normal or inter-cycle years, a negative May has usually pointed to short-term weakness, not a full trend breakdown. But in bear markets, the same signal has historically preceded deeper capitulation.
Related: Analyst says Bitcoin’s $60K bottom signals weaken bear-market forecast
So far, 2026 is not a fully confirmed Bitcoin bear-market year.
In prior bear markets, BTC first broke below major cycle support, around $6,000 in 2018 and $30,000–$32,000 in 2022, before capitulation deepened.
BTC/USD monthly chart. Source: TradingView
BTC still trades near $75,000, above its current cycle support near $60,000. A close below that zone would strengthen the bear-market case.
A monthly close below $70,000–$72,000 would also embolden the bears, while a deeper break below $60,000–$65,000 would make it harder to dismiss the current slump as a mere correction.