Rising oil prices since the US-Israeli war have been a consistent weight on the price of Ether for the last three months, according to Fundstrat co-founder Tom Lee.
“If one is wondering why Ethereum has been under selling pressure … to me, rising oil prices is the biggest headwind,” Lee said on X on Monday.
Lee said the inverse correlation between Ether prices and oil is at a record high. Crude oil prices have surged 66% from $65 to more than $100 per barrel since the US-Israeli war began on Feb. 28.
They spiked again on Monday, with WTI hitting $108 and Brent crude tapping $111, after US President Donald Trump said on Sunday on Truth Social, “the clock is ticking” for Iran to make a deal on opening the Strait of Hormuz.
A prolonged war between the US and Iran could weigh further on Ether, which has mostly traded sideways during the period of conflict. The sell-off accelerated over the past week, with the asset declining nearly 10% and falling back to $2,100 Monday, down 57% from its all-time high.
Ether and oil inverse correlation at a record high. Source: Fundstrat
Fall in oil prices will spell ETH recovery
Lee said a reversal in oil prices would result in ETH prices recovering, describing the current situation as “short-term tactical noise.”
He said the bigger drivers for Ether are tokenization and agentic AI. “These structural drivers are in place. Thus, we expect ETH prices to be stronger as we move through 2026.”
Related: Ethereum Foundation hits ‘Glamsterdam’ milestones, names new protocol leads
Ethereum has been the dominant network for real-world asset tokenization, with more than 60% market share when layer-2 networks are included. Meanwhile, major financial institutions such as BlackRock and JPMorgan recently launched tokenized funds on Ethereum.
The agentic AI narrative stems from the prediction that AI payment agents cannot access bank accounts, so they will use crypto tokens such as ETH or stablecoins for payments.
Ether prices are facing multi-factor pressure
However, Ether is also under pressure from other macroeconomic headwinds, as its correlation with risk assets means it gets hit harder during sell-offs.
Andri Fauzan Adziima, research lead at the Bitrue Research Institute, told Cointelegraph on Monday that oil prices were not the only factor impacting Ether, and there was “multi-factor pressure.”
“They’re one key macro headwind, but ETH selling pressure is also driven by ETF outflows, rising exchange reserves/whale selling, broader risk-off sentiment, and ETH’s underperformance vs Bitcoin,” he said.
Related: ETH stalls at $2.4K five times, SOL to rally to $120: Market Moves