The U.S. stock market is heating up in a way that suggests speculative mania. It matters to bitcoin as analysts have linked the cryptocurrency’s recent rally to increased risk-taking on Wall Street.
The overheating signals come from options tied to the S&P 500. These are derivative contracts that let traders bet on or hedge against moves in the index. A call option is a bet that the index will rise above a certain price within a set time. A put option does the opposite, offering protection from declines in the index.
On Wednesday, U.S. equity derivative exchanges registered a notional volume of $2.6 trillion in S&P 500 call options, according to data tracked by Zero Hedge. That amounted to 60% of total S&P 500 options activity. To put it into context, the notional amount nearly matched the total crypto market valuation of $2.73 trillion, which represents the combined capitalization of thousands of cryptocurrencies, with bitcoin leading the way.
In essence, the majority of market participants were positioned for upside through calls or bullish exposure.
On the surface, the implication for bitcoin is straightforward: it is bullish. A speculative surge in the S&P 500 could spill over into crypto, driving valuations higher. After all, double-digit gains in the S&P 500 and Nasdaq since early April played a big role in lifting bitcoin to $80,000 from under $70,000 a few weeks ago.
QCP Capital put it best early this week when BTC broke above $80,000: “After a solid April, BTC has begun May on firm footing, breaking above $80k for the first time since January 31. The move appears aligned with equities, reinforcing a broader trend as BTC’s correlation with U.S. stocks climbing back toward 2023 levels, signaling a renewed linkage with risk assets broadly.”
That said, the outsized investor bias for bullish exposure in the S&P 500 has raised alarm on social media, with several handles calling it a sign of an overcrowded trade. When too many investors lean in the same direction, in this case, heavily bullish, it leaves the market more vulnerable to sharp reversals in sentiment and positioning if price momentum stalls.
It’s not just social chatter either. Media reports have also cited Goldman Sachs analysts describing the market as being in a “semi-irrational chasing mode,” a phrase widely read as a play on the semiconductor-driven surge in equities.
If that’s not enough, the bullish momentum in the Nasdaq-listed PHLX Semiconductor Sector index (SOX), as measured by the 14-week relative strength index, is strongest since 1999, according to data source TradingView.
All of that is hinting at speculative frenzy. If it unwinds just as quickly, downside volatility could spill over into bitcoin and the broader crypto market, given their positive correlation. Let’s see how things unfold…