The crypto market held steady on Friday, with bitcoin trading little changed at $71,700 and ether (ETH) at $2,180, extending the low-volatility price action that has characterized the past few months.
Daily Bollinger bands, a technical analysis tool that measures market volatility, are at their narrowest since early 2024. In the past, such a tight range — bitcoin has held between $63,000 and $75,000 since early February — has ended with a 40% move in price, according crypto analyst Eric Crown.
A breakout above $75,000 in bitcoin’s case would trigger upside momentum by trapping traders who are short and need to buy at market prices to cover their positions, while a short-term move below $70,000 will liquidate around $200 million worth of long positions that are betting on the breakout, according to CoinGlass’ liquidation heatmap.
One key catalyst on Friday will be the U.S. consumer price index (CPI) data. March inflation is estimated at 3.3% year-on-year, driven by surging energy prices. High inflation figures tend to spur upside price action in the U.S. dollar, which could weigh on risk assets like bitcoin.
Derivatives positioning
- Open interest (OI) in bitcoin futures increased by 1%, with average perpetual funding rates on major exchanges at their highest since Feb. 4. This shows a strengthening investor appetite for bullish exposure.
- Other major cryptocurrencies were mixed. OI increased slightly in XRP (XRP) while holding flat in ether (ETH) and solana (SOL). HYPE and AVAX are other standouts, displaying a bullish combination of OI growth and positive funding rates.
- The privacy-focused ZEC, meanwhile, shows OI growth and negative rates, a sign that traders are continuing to short futures and hedge downside risks even as the spot price rallies. ZEC’s price rose to nearly $400, the highest since Jan. 28.
- There seems to be no end to the downtrend in BTC’s 30-day implied volatility index, BVIV. The measure has slipped to 45%, indicating market calm. It has dropped in a near-straight line from 58% on March 31. Ether’s volatility index shows a similar pattern.
- The decline in volatility is largely led by ETF-related flows. “The ETF complex has created a feedback loop: institutions sell calls for yield, which suppresses upside vol, which makes selling more calls even more attractive. The impact is still subtle, but the direction of travel is clear. Bitcoin’s options market is maturing into a structurally skewed market, just like equities,” STS Digital’s CEO Maxime Seiler told CoinDesk.
- The implied volatility term structure is flat for the next six months and then rises from September, suggesting the market is prepping for a quiet few months in between.
- On Deribit, BTC and ETH options continue to display put skews, although it’s much weaker than a week ago as traders chase upside bets, particularly the BTC call option at the $80,000 strike.
Token talk
- CoinDesk’s DeFi Select Index (DFX) is the best-performing benchmark on Friday, rising by 0.38% while the bitcoin-dominant CoinDesk 5 (CD5) is down by a quarter of a percent.
- The CoinDesk Computing Select Index (CPUS) is the worst performer, losing 1.4% after it was dragged down by bittensor (TAO), which lost more than 12% since midnight UTC after Covenant AI, one of the network’s largest subnet developers, said it was leaving Bittensor.
- “The entire premise of Bittensor, the promise that drew builders, miners, validators, and investors into this ecosystem, is that no single entity controls it,” Covenant AI founder Sam Dare wrote on X. “That promise is a lie.”
- One token that shrugged off broader crypto market apathy was DASH, which surged more than 19% since midnight UTC, contributing to a 24-hour gain of 34% as traders rotated back into the privacy sector.
