- Derivatives data implies Bitcoin will jump about 14% from its current price of $70,000.
- The bullish forecast comes despite ongoing geopolitical turbulence.
- Strategy buys another $1.3 billion worth of Bitcoin.
Bitcoin traders are betting that the price will hit $80,000 by the end of June, according to Nick Forster, founder of onchain options platform Derive.xyz.
Derivatives markets now imply a 14% jump from current prices near $70,000, he said in an investor note shared with DL News.
“Crypto markets are beginning to stabilise as geopolitical tensions surrounding the ongoing conflict in Iran continue,” Forster said. “Despite earlier fears of a catastrophic crash of the crypto markets, derivatives markets suggest those concerns may have been overstated.”
Forster’s $80,000 target lands against a volatile geopolitical backdrop. The escalating conflict in the Middle East has seen US equities falter. The S&P 500, and Dow have slipped 1.4% and 2.6%, respectively since February 27, one day before joint US and Israeli attacks struck Iran.
The war has also seen the price of oil to surge to $120 a barrel before dropping back below $90. On Tuesday, oil prices fell after Chris Wright, the US Secretary of Energy, said in a social media post that the US Navy had successfully escorted a tanker through the Strait of Hormuz.
But the post was later deleted, and CNN reported that Iran has begun to lay sea mines in the Strait of Hormuz, a chokepoint for global energy flows.
Some 32 member countries of the International Energy Agency are set to vote on Wednesday on a proposal to release crude from their strategic petroleum reserves in an effort to keep oil prices suppressed.
Back to crypto?
It is against this background that traders have turned bullish on crypto. The change in tone is visible in the options market, Forster’s analysis shows.
Bitcoin skew — which shows market sentiment by comparing the price of puts and calls — has moved from strongly negative to positive. This suggests traders are no longer heavily protecting against price drops and are becoming more willing to bet on gains, Forster said.
Selling of put options has increased sharply over the past week, he noted. On Deribit, seven of the 10 highest-value trades were puts with strike prices around $70,000 or higher.
Gabe Selby, head of research at CF Benchmarks, noted that Bitcoin climbed more than 4% on Wednesday even as US stock indices each fell more than 1%. Oil’s breakout amid the second week of the US-Iran conflict rattled traditional markets, yet crypto advanced, he told DL News.
Three forces are at work for crypto, Selby argues. They are a mechanical unwind of oversized short positions, exhaustion among major long-term sellers, and the inherent advantage of a 24/7 market that digests geopolitical shocks before Wall Street’s opening bell.
The conflict-driven sell-off earlier this month drove derivatives funding rates sharply negative, creating what Selby calls “coiled energy” for a violent reversal.
Saylor buys more
On Monday, Strategy disclosed it purchased another 17,994 Bitcoin for about $1.3 billion at an average price of about $70,946 per coin. The firm now holds about $56 billion worth at an average cost of $75,862.
Strategy’s preferred stock, STRC, also recorded its highest daily traded volume on record, with volatility compressing even as broader markets swung sharply.
Chief executive Phong Le said the instrument is “more stable than MSTR, bitcoin, gold, the S&P 500, and investment grade bonds,” highlighting the firm’s effort to package crypto exposure in more traditional wrappers.
Crypto market movers
- Bitcoin is down 2.3% over the past 24 hours, trading at $69,541.
- Ethereum is down 2.4% past 24 hours at $2,019.
What we’re reading
Lance Datskoluo is DL News’ Europe-based markets correspondent. Got a tip? Email him at lance@dlnews.com.
