Bitcoin’s (BTC) bleed slowed on Tuesday as US markets recovered from Monday’s AI and software-stocks-driven selloff. At the US market closing bell, the Dow locked in a 370-point gain, while the S&P 500 held on to a 0.77% rally. The swift recovery of US equity markets appears to have played a role in easing negative pressure on crypto investors looking to cut risk asset exposure.
Bitcoin analysts continue to stress the importance of the former $65,000 support being reclaimed and the $60,000 level holding, with many suggesting that a dip below the latter figure would swiftly usher in new lows in the low $50,000 range.
While Bitcoin now trades 49% away from its all-time high, BTC market resource Material Indicators flagged a $4.5 million spot purchase by “mega whales” on Tuesday morning. In the post, Material Indicators noted that while the figure is insignificant, “it’s significantly larger than the typical $1M – $2M market order we see from that order class.”
They added:
“We typically see them do this when they are buying directly into liquidity to help break walls.”
Time for a Bitcoin turnaround?
Currently, few signals point to a reversal of the prolonged bear trend, but analysts are quick to note how deeply oversold Bitcoin is, citing several data points that marked turning points in sentiment and positioning when extreme thresholds were breached.
As reported by Cointelegraph, Bitcoin’s weekly RSI has fallen to 25.71, lows not seen since July, 2022. As shown in the chart below, RSI readings below 28 have previously been a discounted buying opportunity and an early signal that the market is finding a bottom.
Galaxy head of firmwide research Alex Thorn said Bitcoin is “nearing all-time oversold territory,” explaining that the:
“Weekly RSI is lower than any time except the darkest of bears.”
Related: Bitcoin ‘fair value’ gap sets $45K target as AI woes haunt stocks, gold
Bitcoin is also within 9% of its 200-week exponential moving average at $58,855, a level some traders have pointed to as the start of the bottoming process in previous market cycles. Crypto analyst Rekt Capital, on the other hand, painted a less optimistic picture.
According to the analyst, the now confirmed daily close below the 200-EMA “could turn it into resistance on any upcoming recovery.” Rekt Capital suggested that future retests of the moving average would instead “prompt additional bearish acceleration to the downside.”
Even if Bitcoin is on its way to a bottom, the process could take many months. According to Bitcoin analyst Brian Brookshire, “grinding out a bottom” could take time, but some steps in the right direction would be equalization of the BTC supply in the profit-loss metric and “Bitcoin bouncing off mining cost.”
Brookshire also alluded to future US Federal Reserve rate cuts, either by Chairman Jerome Powell or the potential future chair, Kevin Warsh, as having an impact on BTC price.
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