Standard Chartered analysts stuck to their forecast that the stablecoin market will reach $2 trillion by late 2028, despite lowering expectations for short-term US Treasury bill demand.
Stablecoins like Tether’s USDt (USDT) and Circle’s USDC (USDC) are expected to push T-bill demand to $2.2 trillion by 2028, Standard Chartered analyst Geoffrey Kendrick and US rates strategist John Davies said in a Monday report shared with Cointelegraph.
Despite the US dollar stablecoin market cap stalling at around $300 billion in recent months amid a broader crypto downturn, the analysts remain bullish following the passage of the US GENIUS Act in 2025.
“We see these issues as cyclical rather than structural, and we continue to expect stablecoin market cap to reach $2 trillion by end-2028,” Standard Chartered’s report said.
Stablecoins may drive Treasury to issue more bills despite lowered demand
According to Standard Chartered, stablecoins are now expected to generate an additional $0.8-$1 trillion in fresh T-bill demand for use as reserves by late 2028, a hefty reduction from the $1.6 trillion projected in April 2025, despite the passage of the GENIUS Act.
Related: SEC allows broker-dealers to take 2% ‘haircut’ on stablecoins
Standard Chartered analysts still expect that the US Treasury may use this potential excess demand as justification to issue more T-bills. They cited Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent’s statements in early February in which he suggested the GENIUS Act could be “an important feature of financing the US government.”
The Treasury’s quarterly refunding announcement on the same day also cited “growing demand for Treasury bills from the private sector,” the analysts noted, adding:
“Stablecoin-related demand, in conjunction with the Fed’s recent decision to commence RMPs [reserve management purchases] and replace its maturing MBS [mortgage-backed securities] with T-bills, could arguably cause T-bills to become overly scarce.”
In addition to forecasting stablecoins to reach $2 trillion by the end of 2028, Standard Chartered previously expected Bitcoin (BTC) to hit $500,000 over the same period.
Amid ongoing uncertainty in crypto markets, the bank’s analysts have recently lowered their BTC price target for 2026 from $150,000 to $100,000, projecting the cryptocurrency could fall as low as $50,000 before a potential recovery.
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